Standard sufficient conditions for identification in the regression discontinuity design are continuity of the conditional expectation of counterfactual outcomes in the running variable. These continuity assumptions may not be plausible if agents are able to manipulate the running variable. This...

Investigators of social differentials in health outcomes commonly augment incomplete micro data by appending socioeconomic characteristics of residential areas (such as median income in a zip code) to proxy for individual characteristics. However, little empirical attention has been paid to how...

This paper aims to provide a stochastic, rational expectations extension of Tobin's "Money and Income; Post Hoc Ergo Proper Hoc?". It is well-known that money may Granger-cause real variables even though the joint density function of the real variables is invariant under changes in the...

Forecast evaluation often compares a parsimonious null model to a larger model that nests the null model. Under the null that the parsimonious model generates the data, the larger model introduces noise into its forecasts by estimating parameters whose population values are zero. We observe that...

This paper considers estimation and testing of vector autoregression coefficients in panel data, and applies the techniques to analyze the dynamic properties of revenues, expenditures, and grants in a sample of United States municipalities. The model allows for nonstationary individual effects,...

This paper explores the role of foreign aid and remittance inflows in the mitigation of the effects of food price shocks. Using a large sample of developing countries and mobilising dynamic panel data specifications, the econometric results yield two important findings. First, remittance and aid...

In applied econometric work, analysts are concerned often with estimation of and inferences about interaction effects, e.g. 'Does the magnitude of the effect of z1 on y depend on z2? ' This paper develops tests for and proper interpretation of various forms of interaction effects in one...

Cross-sectional regression analyses of wage gaps may be biased by omission of unobserved worker characteristics. Recent studies therefore have used longitudinal data to "difference out" the effects of such variables. This paper. however. shows that self-selection of job changers may cause...

This paper focuses on developing and adapting statistical models of counts (non-negative integers) in the context of panel data and using them to analyze the relationship between patents and R&D expenditures. The model used is an application and generalization of the Poisson distribution to...

In this paper, we investigate the problem of estimating distributed lags in short panels. Estimates of the parameter of distributed lag relationships based on single time-series of observations have been usually rather imprecise. The promise of panel data in this context is in the N repetitions...