After five years of Paraguay’s high growth led, in part by agro-exporting sectors, the external environment has turned less favorable, with a sharp decline of export prices and a curtailment of external credit lines. The Selected Issues paper for Paraguay discusses economic development...

We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between out- put, price inflation and inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale underlying the capacity constraint theory (Macklem...

This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density forecasts from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. We exploit the panel dimension in this dataset to examine whether this distribution became less stable following the Great...

This paper examines key findings of Iceland’s Request for a Stand-By Arrangement from the IMF. Iceland’s economy is in the midst of a banking crisis of extraordinary proportions that is expected to lead to a deep recession, a sharp rise in the fiscal deficit, and a dramatic surge...

The 2012 Article IV Report on Ireland’s economy under the Extended Arrangement analyzes the banking crisis and Irish authorities’ steadfast efforts to restore stability. Public debt has been high, and the banking system has not served the financial needs of both households and the...

This paper assesses the evolution of Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) real exchange rates over time, and examines whether the region has lost competitiveness. The main finding is that there is little evidence of overvaluation of the Eastern Caribbean (EC) dollar. The relationship...