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Was there a regime change in the German monetary transmission mechanism in 1983?

Candelon, Bertrand; Lütkepohl, Helmut - 2000

Recent investigations of the transmission mechanism of German monetary policy arrive at quite different conclusions regarding its stability during the period of monetary targeting by the Bundesbank. In this study small dynamic models for the monetary sector of the German economy are analyzed in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009583433

Lag selection in subset VAR models with an application to a US monetary system

Brüggemann, Ralf; Lütkepohl, Helmut - 2000

Alternative modeling strategies for specifying subset VAR models are considered. It is shown that under certain conditions a testing procedure based on t-ratios is equivalent to sequentially eliminating lags that lead to the largest improvement in a prespecified model selection criterion. A...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009583885

Inflation Targeting and Output Growth : Empirical Evidence for the European Union

International Monetary Fund - 2005

This paper evaluates the performance of two alternative policy rules, a forward-looking rule and a spontaneous adjustment rule, under alternative inflation targets, in terms of output losses in a macroeconomic model, using European Union data. The simulations suggest that forward-looking rules...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400852

The response of long-term interest rates to news about monetary policy actions : empirical evidence for the US and Germany

Nautz, Dieter; Wolters, Jürgen - 1998

We reexamine the expectations theory of the term structure focusing on the question how monetary policy actions … tests of expectations theory this implication only requires rational expectations but not stationary risk premia. Therefore …, its empirical test sheds new light on the importance of expectations theory for the determinants of the term structure of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009578577

The transmission of German monetary policy in the pre-Euro period

Lütkepohl, Helmut; Wolters, Jürgen - 2001

A small macroeconomic model is constructed to study the transmission of the monetary policy conducted by the Deutsche Bundesbank (DBB) since the middle of the 1970s. For this purpose quarterly, seasonally unadjusted data for the period from 1975 to 1998 are used, that is, the period until the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009616780

Comparison of bootstrap confidence intervals for impulse responses of German monetary systems

Benkwitz, Alexander; Lütkepohl, Helmut; Wolters, Jürgen - 1999

It is argued that standard impulse response analysis based on vector autoregressive models has a number of shortcomings. Although the impulse responses are estimated quantities, measures for sampling variability such as confidence intervals are often not provided. If confidence intervals are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009580485

Following Germany'S Lead : Using International Monetary Linkages to Identify the Effect of Monetary Policyon the Economy

International Monetary Fund - 2005

Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority leads least squares estimates to understate the true growth consequences of monetary policy interventions. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on real output growth for several European...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400699

The Transmission Mechanism in Armenia : New Evidence from a Regime Switching VAR Analysis

International Monetary Fund - 2010

The introduction of inflation targeting in 2006, together with important economic developments such as dedollarization, marked the beginning of a new macroeconomic framework in Armenia, which is likely to have changed the effectiveness of monetary policy. This paper is the first attempt to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403230

The monetary model of the exchange rate : a structural interpretation

Moersch, Mathias; Nautz, Dieter - 1998

We emphasize the importance of properly identifying the long-run relations underlying the monetary model of the exchange rate. The separate estimation of long-run money demands leads to a "structural" error correction equation which allows an interpretation of the various channels affecting the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009574885

A note on stochastic volatility, GARCH models, and hyperbolic distributions

Jaschke, Stefan R. - 1997

We establish a relation between stochastic volatility models and the class of generalized hyperbolic distributions. These distributions have been found to fit exceptionally well to the empirical distribution of stock returns. We review the background of hyperbolic distributions and prove...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009577459