This Selected Issues paper estimates an equilibrium path for South Africa’s real effective exchange rate. The paper briefly describes the dynamics of the real exchange rate and its determinants. It investigates the presence of a long-term relationship between the real exchange rate and...

This paper discusses key findings of the Fourth Review Under the Stand–By Arrangement for Belarus. All end-December quantitative and continuous performance criteria and structural benchmarks were met. Discussions focused on confirming the authorities’ commitment to program...

This Selected Issues paper assesses the impact of Vietnam’s World Trade Organization (WTO) accession. It describes the main terms of Vietnam’s accession as regards trade in goods and services, and uses a partial equilibrium simulation model to estimate the likely impact of WTO...

We introduce non-tradable goods to the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (HOS) model to study the distributive effects of terms of trade shocks. We show that the employment of resources in activities producing exclusively for the local market induces a crucial association between domestic spending and...

This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that the three-year Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility arrangement for Vietnam expired in April 2004. During the arrangement, Vietnam maintained strong economic growth and low inflation, and achieved further poverty reduction, supported by...

This paper analyzes the 2005 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) for the Union of the Comoros. Economic growth remained lackluster in 2004 owing to a depressed world demand for vanilla and crop, and cattle diseases. Government revenue stagnated, while...

Questions about external competitiveness, exchange rate misalignment, and the appropriate exchange rate policy feature prominently in the Russian policy debate. This paper furthers the debate by estimating empirically Russia's equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER)-that is, the rate consistent...

The staff report for the 2008 Article IV Consultation of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia discusses economic developments and policies. The new government’s economic program aims to raise growth further, but does not address these vulnerabilities. Plans to increase the central...

This paper reviews economic developments in Lithuania during 1993–96. Economic growth resumed in 1994 and gained further momentum in 1995; real GDP increased by an estimated 3 percent in 1995. Growth in 1995 was driven by the industrial sector, while agriculture performed poorly. The...

This Selected Issues paper for Canada presents comprehensive and broad-based analysis of the role of domestic and external shocks. Canada’s economic history illustrates the important role played by external as well as domestic macroeconomic disturbances. Canada’s economy slowed in...