Showing 1 - 7 of 7
This paper studies the impact of the level and volatility of the commodity terms of trade on economic growth, as well as on the three main growth channels: total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation, and human capital acquisition. We use the standard system GMM approach as well as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650613
The 2008 crisis underscored the interconnectedness of the international business cycle, with U.S. shocks leading to the largest global slowdown since the 1930s. We estimate spillover effects across major advanced country regions in a structural VAR (SVAR) using pre-crisis data. Our new method...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727802
This paper focuses on post-crisis fiscal priorities in the ASEAN-5 economies - Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Sound economic fundamentals and timely and forceful policy responses to the crisis, including fiscal stimulus, contributed to rapid economic recovery in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727808
This paper investigates the impact of a global slowdown on individual African countries using a series of dynamic panel regressions for countries in the region, relating real growth in domestic output to world growth in trade weighted by partner countries and several control variables: oil...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528637
The main findings are as follows: (1) an increase in private national saving during 2001-03 was the key contributor to the turnaround in Pakistan's external current account during this period; (2) while Pakistan's growth was mainly export-led before 2003-04, it was largely led by domestic demand...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599417
This paper employs several econometric techniques to estimate the Armenian output gap. The findings indicate that the output gap is significantly positive in 2007 and 2008 and decreased dramatically in 2009. The paper uses these results to estimate a New Keynesian Phillips curve for Armenia,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008671293
The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008876603