A sustained decline in fertility rates underlies a rapid aging and decline of Japan's population. This will have profound social and economic implications. The paper illustrates the difficult situation facing Japanese fiscal policy in the years ahead. The findings of this paper indicate that...

This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that Japan’s external position remains strong. The current account surplus rose to 4.8 percent of GDP in 2007 on the back of strong external demand and a further surge in investment income. Money markets remain relatively stable owing to the banking...

Although fiscal consolidation has short-term costs, the potential long-term benefits are considerable. Although adjustment is important for securing fiscal sustainability, reforms that raise potential growth could also support consolidation. Simulations show that the external environment also...

Japan’s economy is gaining strength, but vulnerability to sovereign risk is rising. The new government has a greater willingness to consider needed fiscal reforms. Timely stimulus and strong external demand have supported the economic recovery. Global events have focused on Japan’s fiscal...

Fiscal policy has been strongly expansionary for most of the past decade in Japan. The resulting strain on public finances has made stimulus policies more difficult to maintain. The stance of monetary policy has remained unchanged over the past year. Further progress in resolving banking...

This Selected Issues paper examines the factors behind the recent surge in capital flows in Japan. The paper presents econometric evidence on the influence of these capital flows on the medium-term dynamics of the yen. It finds that in the case of the yen–dollar rate, nontrade factors...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that Japan’s external position remains strong. Boosted by investment income, the current account surplus widened in 2006 to nearly 4 percent of Japan’s GDP, despite a shrinking trade balance. Financial outflows also picked up, reflecting mainly...

This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that Japan’s economic recovery continued in 2003 and into the first part of 2004. For 2003, GDP growth reached 21⁄2 percent, double the mid-year consensus forecast, and continued at about 6 percent on an annualized basis in the first quarter of...

This Selected Issues paper analyzes the key features of the Japanese business cycle, and investigates whether the current recovery differs from past recoveries. In particular, this paper poses the following questions: what are the main characteristics of Japanese business cycles since 1980, and...