The global economy is at another highly uncertain moment: tentative signs of stabilization earlier this year have receded, and the outlook is increasingly risky and uncertain. At the same time, divisions within and across countries are deepening, exacerbated by rising fragmentation. Strong...

The Fund has made good progress over the past two years in integrating macrofinancial analysis into Article IV surveillance for a wide range of members. Building on past work to enhance financial sector analysis, Fund staff has sought to develop a consistent and forward-looking view on how the...

What is the human cost of the global economic crisis? How many people will the crisis prevent from escaping poverty, and how many will remain hungry? How many more infants will die? Are children being pulled out of schools, not getting the education they need to become more productive adults and...

This note reflects macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts presented with the April 2009 World Economic Outlook, as well as information on fiscal stimulus and financial and industrial sector support gathered through mid-May. It follows the request by G-20 leaders for the Fund to assess regularly the...

The IMF's 2009 Annual Report chronicles the response of the Fund's Executive Board and staff to the global financial crisis and other events during financial year 2009, which covers the period from May 1, 2008, through April 30, 2009. The print version of the Report is available in eight...

The economic and financial crisis is affecting the fiscal accounts of virtually every country. Public sector support for the financial system, fiscal stimulus and the automatic stabilizers, as well as the revenue decline from the downturn in commodity and asset prices, are leading to sharp...

What is the human cost of the global economic crisis? This year’s Global Monitoring Report, The MDGs after the Crisis, examines the impact of the worst recession since the Great Depression on poverty and human development outcomes in developing countries. Although the recovery is under way,...

This paper examines the World Economic Outlook forecasting record for the principal performance indicators for the major industrial countries and corresponding aggregates and for groups of non-oil developing countries. Several criteria were used in evaluating the forecasts: the computation and...

This paper discusses commodity prices might serve as a useful leading indicator of inflation, based on the relative importance of flexible auction markets for the determination of these prices. They thus may have a tendency to respond relatively quickly, especially in response to monetary...

This paper describes the functioning of labor markets and to eliminate other structural obstacles to noninflationary growth. The decline in the price level in the home country will involve a rise in the real money supply and, if output is sluggish, this will result in an excess supply of money....