Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority leads least squares estimates to understate the true growth consequences of monetary policy interventions. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on real output growth for several European...

This paper evaluates the performance of two alternative policy rules, a forward-looking rule and a spontaneous adjustment rule, under alternative inflation targets, in terms of output losses in a macroeconomic model, using European Union data. The simulations suggest that forward-looking rules...

Developing countries fortunate enough to experience capital inflows haveseen rising levels of investment and enhanced economic growth. Capitalinflows have a negative side, however, in that they tend to appreciatethe domestic currency, making exports less competitive, and to encourageinflation....

Supporting Studies for the World Economic Outlook, prepared by IMF staff, provide a more detailed analysis of issues recently covered in the main pubication. The current edition includes studies of globalization and growth, the future of the international financial system, currency crises,...

This report describes the monetary and exchange rate policies of the euro area and the euro area stability programs. The Stability and Growth Pact presents annual stability programs (SPs), which outlines the medium-term fiscal objectives. The paper provides a preliminary review of the SPs,...

The euro area continues to perform well, owing to its sustained employment creation, rising disposable income, buoyant internal demand, and low inflation. Executive Directors agreed that favorable external developments and sound macroeconomic fundamentals had produced robust area-wide growth....

This paper examines monetary and exchange rate policies of the euro area. The paper reviews the European Central Bank’s definition of price stability, and examines the factors determining “the optimal rate of inflation” in the euro area. It reviews the benefits of price stability,...

The paper presents a model of fiscal dominance with borrowing constraints, and provides evidence for a large number of sub-Saharan African countries on the relative importance of fiscal and monetary determinants of inflation. Based on the dynamic response of inflation to different shocks,...

The economic conditions in the euro area have brightened. Executive Directors commended the policy stance of the European Central Bank. They noted that the exchange rate developments of the euro failed to strengthen the euro area economy, and stressed the need for fiscal discipline, structural...