The large capital inflows that generated a domestic demand boom in Bulgaria led to strong employment growth. But a sharp reduction in capital inflows led to a contraction of domestic demand, while the recession in Bulgaria’s trading partners caused a drop in exports. Public policies will also...

Bulgaria’s potential output growth in future could be markedly lower, and it may take considerable time for the excess labor and resources to be absorbed by other sectors, in particular by the export sector. This suggests that the natural level of rate of unemployment will rise and remain...

This paper examines Bulgaria’s 2004 Article IV Consultation and Ex Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement. Foreign direct investment inflows have been strong, reserves are rising, and competitiveness appears broadly adequate. Fiscal policy has been tightened in 2003, as the...

This 2008 Article IV Consultation discusses that Bulgaria has been hit by the global financial crisis, with clear signs that the country’s capital inflows-driven boom has come to an end and that the real economy is slowing down. Executive Directors have commended the Bulgarian authorities for...

Bulgaria’s currency board arrangement continues to have broad political and public support and shows no signs of strain, as interest rates are low and stable, fiscal reserves ample, and banks liquid. A structural reform agenda has also been implemented. The authorities have improved banking...

The extensive growth model introduced under central planning in the 1950s resulted in rapid industrialization and initially high growth. The efforts to bring the banking system on a sound footing following the 1996–97 crises have hardened budget constraints, but they have yet to result in a...

Bulgaria’s request for a 25-month precautionary Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) in an amount of SDR 100 million or 15.62 percent of quota is discussed. The SBA-supported program seeks to reduce increased external vulnerability and to achieve sustainable high growth through a tighter fiscal policy...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that Bulgaria’s large external imbalance has continued to widen. Driven by massive capital inflows, particularly foreign direct investment inflows, the current account deficit could reach a record level of 20 percent of GDP in 2007. Although the...

This Selected Issues paper on Bulgaria investigates possible driving forces behind the investment boom based on cross-country evidence. The diagnosis of the drivers behind the investment boom is important as it is key to assessing Bulgaria’s economic prospects, vulnerabilities, and policy...

This paper assesses Bulgaria’s 2002 Article IV Consultation, First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), and a Request for Waiver of Non-observance and Waiver of Applicability. The authorities’ structural reform program is ambitious, but implementation needs to be stepped up. In...