Showing 1 - 10 of 104
The sharp increase in fiscal deficits and public debt in most advanced and several developing economies has raised concerns about the sustainability of public finances and highlighted the need for a significant adjustment over the medium term. This paper assesses the usefulness of fiscal rules...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014410177
Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority leads least squares estimates to understate the true growth consequences of monetary policy interventions. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on real output growth for several European...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400699
The sensitivity of secondary sovereign loan market returns to three classes of economic news is estimated in the arbitrage pricing theory framework. Returns are characterized by a limited response to unexpected changes in procyclical U.S. aggregates. Shocks to country-specific balance of payment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396212
This study characterizes volatility dynamics in external emerging bond markets and examines how prices and volatility respond to news about macroeconomic fundamentals. As in mature bond markets, macroeconomic surprises in external emerging bond markets are found to a¤ect both conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404285
This paper presents three empirical approaches to forecasting inflation in Pakistan. The preferred approach is a leading indicators model in which broad money growth and private sector credit growth help forecast inflation. A univariate approach also yields reasonable forecasts, but seems less...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400746
This paper seeks to advance the discussion of monetary policy strategies in several ways. One involves a comparison of targets for nominal GNP and the price level, with emphasis on specificational robustness and implications for output variability. A second pertains to various “indicator”...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396173
This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396182
Observers have often characterized asset markets as being subject to periods of tranquility and periods of turbulence. Until recently, however, researchers were unable to produce closed-form asset pricing formulas in a model environment of time-varying risk. Some work by Abel provided us with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396175
This paper analyzes the dynamics of the real exchange rate and the price of equity for a small open economy using an optimizing model in which the process of capital accumulation entails adjustment costs. The analysis demonstrates that along an adjustment path toward long-run equilibrium,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396304
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001506705