This paper analyzes the implications of devaluation and a variety of structural disturbances in a dual exchange rate economy. A key feature of the model developed is its explicit recognition of both private (fraudulent) and officially-sanctioned cross transactions between the two exchange...

The exchange rate for the Lebanese pound experienced a protracted period of depreciation from end-1982 to November 1987, followed by a marked appreciation over the following six months. This paper investigates the competing hypotheses that the exchange rate over these two periods was driven by a...

This book examines the challenges facing the international monetary and financial system, as well as the future role of the Bretton Woods institutions in addressing those challenges. The volume is based on the proceedings of a 2004 conference cosponsored by the Banco de Espana and the...

Reform package. Comprehensive reform of Fund governance-encompassing quotas, ministerial engagement and oversight, the size and composition of the Executive Board, voting rules, management selection, and staff diversity-is essential to enhancing the Fund's long-term legitimacy and effectiveness....

In View of the continuation of substantial movements in exchange rate relationships among major currencies, the recent increase in protectionist pressures, and the disappointing performance of world trade, renewed concern has been expressed about the possible adverse effects of exchange rate...

The paper reviews the statistical behavior of major currency exchange rates during 1975-86. A close inspection indicates small deviations of recent exchange rate behavior from random walks and some systematic movements in monthly data, possibly corresponding to the relatively infrequent arrivals...

This paper uses an intertemporal optimizing model of a small open economy to analyze how terms of trade changes affect real exchange rates and the trade balance. We consider temporary current, anticipated future, and permanent changes in the terms of trade. The results suggest that the...

This paper seeks to advance the discussion of monetary policy strategies in several ways. One involves a comparison of targets for nominal GNP and the price level, with emphasis on specificational robustness and implications for output variability. A second pertains to various “indicator”...

This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical...