In an economy with a debt overhang, investment depends on expected tax rates. On the other hand, expected tax rates depend on the debt’s face value. Therefore investment depends on the face value of debt. I show that this may lead to a positive or negative association between debt and...

This paper provides empirical evidence on the determinants of long-term growth performance in a sample of 55 developing countries grouped by income levels. The evidence indicates that a model incorporating the savings rate, export performance, expenditures on human capital development, the...

The staff report on Euro Area Policies highlights cyclical growth developments and risks. The area’s real GDP growth has picked up, responding to strong foreign demand and relaxed financial conditions. The final domestic demand growth remains subdued, and the area lags global growth by a...

Poland's outstanding economic performance has come under strain. Executive Directors stressed the need to strengthen fiscal and monetary policies, and accelerate structural reforms. They considered that the new strategy will strengthen the medium-term economic performance, and place Poland in a...

Poverty risk is most marked for children, displaced persons and returnees, unemployed, and people with low education. Basic goals of the macroeconomic framework of the mid-term development strategy of Bosnia and Herzegovina are to reduce the overall public expenditures, lower the public debt,...

The erosion of EU trade preferences for bananas and sugar will have immediate negative implications for Belize’s economy. This paper suggests ways to enhance public debt management in Belize. The vulnerability of the banking sector appears relatively modest. However, the current level of...

This paper discusses key findings of the Fourth Review Under the Stand–By Arrangement for Belarus. All end-December quantitative and continuous performance criteria and structural benchmarks were met. Discussions focused on confirming the authorities’ commitment to program...

The demand pressures associated with the large terms-of-trade gains are reflected in a fast real appreciation of the ruble, although more of this has come through nominal appreciation during the last year. The risks to the outlook are evenly balanced and depend mostly on oil price developments....

Efforts to liberalize world trade are increasingly focusing on strengthening the links between low-income countries’ trade policies and their development strategies. However, although greater trade openness promises faster growth for poor countries, it also presents risks to those with...