The paper evaluates whether a monetary aggregate can serve as a useful predictor of inflation, using recent developments in the principle of cointegrated variables. M2 but not M1 is cointegrated with relevant price, transactions, and rate of return variables. However, deviations of M2 from its...

Anecdotal evidence relates corruption with high levels of military spending. This paper tests empirically whether such a relationship exists. The empirical analysis is based on data from four different sources for up to 120 countries in the period 1985–98. The association between military...

The paper examines empirically the question of whether more unequal societies spend more on income redistribution than their more egalitarian counterparts. Theoretical arguments on this issue are inconclusive. The political economy literature suggests that redistributive spending is higher in...

This paper examines the extent to which conclusions of cross-country studies of private savings are robust to allowing for the possible heterogeneity of savings behavior across countries and the inclusion of dynamics. It shows that neglecting heterogeneity and dynamics can lead to misleading...

This paper develops and calibrates a simple general equilibrium model with two types of labor and capital for the French economy. The simulation results indicate that targeted reductions in employer social security taxes have six times as large an effect on employment as untargeted reductions...

The Managing Director welcomes the IEO's novel report, which identifies recurring issues from past evaluations and assesses progress in addressing them. The report's focus on organizational silos, attention to risks and uncertainty, country and institutional context, evenhandedness, and...

Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority leads least squares estimates to understate the true growth consequences of monetary policy interventions. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on real output growth for several European...