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Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter

International Monetary Fund - 2010

This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403161

Interpreting Real Exchange Rate Movements in Transition Countries

International Monetary Fund - 2001

that these appreciations reflect underlying productivity gains in the tradable sector. Using panel data over the period … 1993-98, the results show clear evidence of productivity-driven exchange rate movements in the central and eastern European … expect to experience further productivity-driven real exchange rate appreciations. Evidence from a large cross-section of non …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403602

Money Demand in the United States

International Monetary Fund - 1988

This paper considers the demand for various monetary aggregates with a view to assessing their potential roles as intermediate variables for monetary policy. Illustrative estimates using a generalized autoregressive distributed lag model are presented. For M1, the results support an “error...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396094

Model of the U.S. Current Account

International Monetary Fund - 1988

This paper presents an econometric model of U.S. current account transactions. The model is used to analyze the factors behind the deterioration in the U.S. external position during the 1980s and to examine the sensitivity of the U.S. current account balance to changes in factors which are its...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396470

Anticipation and Surprises in Central Bank Interest Rate Policy : The Case of the Bundesbank

International Monetary Fund - 1998

Market reaction to a change in official interest rates will depend on the extent to which the change is anticipated, and on how it is interpreted as a signal of future policy. In this paper, a technique is developed to separate the anticipated and unanticipated components of such changes and is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400820

Sterilizing Capital inflows

International Monetary Fund - 1997

Developing countries fortunate enough to experience capital inflows haveseen rising levels of investment and enhanced economic growth. Capitalinflows have a negative side, however, in that they tend to appreciatethe domestic currency, making exports less competitive, and to encourageinflation....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402762

External Adjustment and the Optimal Demand for International Reserves

International Monetary Fund - 1989

This paper provides a theoretical underpinning for the major determinants of optimal reserve demand in the case where fundamental disequilibrium constitutes a key element governing reserve management. Emphasis is given to the role of reserves to smooth the process of economic adjustment by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396133

Trade Costs and Real Exchange Rate Volatility : The Role of Ricardian Comparative Advantage

International Monetary Fund - 2005

This paper examines the impact of trade costs on real exchange rate volatility. We incorporate a multi-country Ricardian model of trade, based on the work of Eaton and Kortum (2002), into a macroeconomic model to show how bilateral real exchange rate volatility depends on relative technological...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399797

Corruption and Military Spending

International Monetary Fund - 2000

Anecdotal evidence relates corruption with high levels of military spending. This paper tests empirically whether such a relationship exists. The empirical analysis is based on data from four different sources for up to 120 countries in the period 1985–98. The association between military...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399916

Neglected Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Cross-Country Savings Regressions

International Monetary Fund - 1999

This paper examines the extent to which conclusions of cross-country studies of private savings are robust to allowing for the possible heterogeneity of savings behavior across countries and the inclusion of dynamics. It shows that neglecting heterogeneity and dynamics can lead to misleading...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400163

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