When the exchange rate fluctuates and the market exhibits hysteresis, planning horizons of domestic and foreign competitors will matter in determining pass-through as well as relative market shares of these firms. Using the Cournot duopoly model, it is shown that if the foreign exporter is a...

This technical note explores the reasons for a comparatively high interest rate spread in Kazakhstan in the context of competition in the banking sector. In spite of significant gains in efficiency made in recent years, operational costs and provisioning for loan losses remain high compared with...

This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that problems in the housing and financial markets over the past year have combined to slow the United States’ economy substantially. As the residential investment downturn accelerated and national indices of housing prices started falling, mortgage...

This paper discusses the estimation of models of the term structure of interest rates. After reviewing the term structure models, specifically the Nelson-Siegel Model and Affine Term- Structure Model, this paper estimates the terms structure of Treasury bond yields for the United States with...

The 2008 crisis underscored the interconnectedness of the international business cycle, with U.S. shocks leading to the largest global slowdown since the 1930s. We estimate spillover effects across major advanced country regions in a structural VAR (SVAR) using pre-crisis data. Our new method...

This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that the U.S. economy has experienced the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. In the second half of 2008, financial pressures intensified and came to a head with the failure of Lehman Brothers in September. Executive Directors have...

The stress testing analysis in the United States was based on publicly available information and on models that are subject to a considerable degree of uncertainty. The stress tests illustrate important vulnerabilities in the banking sector. It highlights the importance of macrofinancial...