We compile a historical dataset covering nearly 40 years of booms and busts in the commodity terms of trade of over 150 countries. We discuss the characteristics of these events and their effects on macroeconomic performance and, in particular, compare the most recent commodity-price cycle with...

This paper studies the impact of the level and volatility of the commodity terms of trade on economic growth, as well as on the three main growth channels: total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation, and human capital acquisition. We use the standard system GMM approach as well as...

Inflation followed a strikingly uniform pattern in all countries of the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia during the period 1996-2009, falling until about 2000 and then rising. International fuel prices do not help explain this pattern. This conclusion is robust even when different...

A two-country theoretical model is presented, showing the effects of monetary, fiscal, and supply-side disturbances on prices of primary commodities and manufactured goods, and on exchange rates. If monetary shocks dominate, then commodity prices should lead general price movements, and the...

Commodity prices may be a leading indicator of inflation, because of the relative importance of flexible auction markets for the determination of these prices. Empirical tests using data for the large industrial countries as a group suggest that changes in commodity prices tend to lead those in...

As part of its work to help low-income countries (LICs) manage volatility, the IMF has recently developed an analytical framework to assess vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment (see IMF, 2011a). This report draws on the results of the first...