The 2008 crisis underscored the interconnectedness of the international business cycle, with U.S. shocks leading to the largest global slowdown since the 1930s. We estimate spillover effects across major advanced country regions in a structural VAR (SVAR) using pre-crisis data. Our new method...

This paper presents an econometric model of U.S. current account transactions. The model is used to analyze the factors behind the deterioration in the U.S. external position during the 1980s and to examine the sensitivity of the U.S. current account balance to changes in factors which are its...

This paper considers the demand for various monetary aggregates with a view to assessing their potential roles as intermediate variables for monetary policy. Illustrative estimates using a generalized autoregressive distributed lag model are presented. For M1, the results support an “error...

Full text also available in Arabic, Chinese, French, Japanese, Russian, and Spanish. Despite signs of recovery and resilience in some economies, global growth continues to disappoint, with the expected pick-up driven primarily by emerging markets. This persistent underperformance has exposed...

The Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda (GPA) presented to the IMFC last month highlights the challenges associated with a rapidly changing and uncertain world. The limited room for policy maneuver and the need to adapt to new realities pose difficult trade-offs between supporting demand...

The thrust of the report's recommendations to strengthen the institutional framework for self-evaluation, adapt it over time to changing circumstances, and better disseminate lessons from self-evaluation are well taken. I believe, however, that there is considerable scope to address these...

This Work Program (WP) translates the policy priorities and strategic directions laid out in the Fall 2016 Global Policy Agenda (GPA) and the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) Communique into an Executive Board agenda for the next six-twelve months. The Managing Director's...

The Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda (GPA) presented to the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) in April called on member countries to reinforce their commitment to strong, sustainable, inclusive, job-rich, and more balanced global growth and to employ a three-pronged...

The Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda (GPA) presented to the IMFC in April identified a range of actions needed to bolster today's actual and tomorrow's potential output, diminish risks, and confront emerging global challenges. These actions included calibrating fiscal adjustment to...