This paper analyzes the factors determining the payment on outstanding debt in the presence of partial defaults, and the feasibility of renewed investment. We show that a higher relative size of sectors with lower substitutability between domestic and foreign products will increase the resource...

In an economy with a debt overhang, investment depends on expected tax rates. On the other hand, expected tax rates depend on the debt’s face value. Therefore investment depends on the face value of debt. I show that this may lead to a positive or negative association between debt and...

This paper provides empirical evidence on the determinants of long-term growth performance in a sample of 55 developing countries grouped by income levels. The evidence indicates that a model incorporating the savings rate, export performance, expenditures on human capital development, the...

This paper discusses the estimation of models of the term structure of interest rates. After reviewing the term structure models, specifically the Nelson-Siegel Model and Affine Term- Structure Model, this paper estimates the terms structure of Treasury bond yields for the United States with...

This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that following a rather tepid recovery, the United States economy gathered strength in 2003. Supported by continued robust productivity growth, real GDP growth began to exceed the growth rate of potential output around midyear. The recovery broadened...

This Selected Issues paper presents updated IMF staff estimates of potential output growth for the United States, using data through 2001 that incorporates the full cyclical upswing of the 1990s and the subsequent mild recession, as well as taking into account the revisions to the national...