The paper evaluates whether a monetary aggregate can serve as a useful predictor of inflation, using recent developments in the principle of cointegrated variables. M2 but not M1 is cointegrated with relevant price, transactions, and rate of return variables. However, deviations of M2 from its...

This study shows that the aggregate demand for M1 in the group of countries participating in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System can be expressed as a stable function of ERM-wide income, inflation, interest rates, and the exchange rate of the European Currency Unit...

This paper presents estimates of a demand function for broad money in Japan. The function explains both secular trends in broad money during the 1970s and 1980s and the sharp decline in the income velocity of broad money during 1986-88. The inclusion of wealth and a measure of the return on...

This paper examines some of the key issues in the conduct of Philippine monetary policy since 1984, including the various shocks to the economy and the monetary authorities’ choice of intermediate policy targets and instruments used to achieve those targets. Against this background, estimates...

Error correction models of the demand for a range of monetary aggregates in China are estimated with quarterly data for the period 1983–88. The estimated models fit the data reasonably well and appear to be relatively stable. Money demand is found to be sensitive to changes in expected...

This Selected Issues paper provides a brief overview of the Dominican Republic authorities’ structural reform efforts in the 1990s. The paper provides a history of trade reforms, which form an integral part of the structural reform agenda. It presents a review of fiscal policy during the...

The pace of financial market innovation in Canada quickened in the past decade or so with implications for the empirical relationships between the various monetary aggregates and other economic variables. Against this background, this paper, using an error correction formulation, presents new...

This paper considers the demand for various monetary aggregates with a view to assessing their potential roles as intermediate variables for monetary policy. Illustrative estimates using a generalized autoregressive distributed lag model are presented. For M1, the results support an “error...

The reputation of the aggregate demand function for money balances has plummeted since the mid-1970s, owing to the destabilizing effects of financial innovation and deregulation. There is, nonetheless, a renewed effort among economists to uncover stable relationships, a revival that reflects in...

Inflation-forecast targeting is state of the art for monetary policy. This book explores first principles, including managing short-term policy trade-offs. The book also outlines efficient operational procedures and reviews the experiences of Canada, the Czech Republic, and India. The analysis...