Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority leads least squares estimates to understate the true growth consequences of monetary policy interventions. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on real output growth for several European...

The 2008 crisis underscored the interconnectedness of the international business cycle, with U.S. shocks leading to the largest global slowdown since the 1930s. We estimate spillover effects across major advanced country regions in a structural VAR (SVAR) using pre-crisis data. Our new method...

The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and...

The paper shows that an increase in the aggregate fiscal deficit of the industrial countries may worsen the economic growth and fiscal balance of the developing countries that are burdened with external debt and facing current account constraints. The discussion is based on theoretical analysis...

This report presents the analysis, findings, conclusions and recommendations of the evaluation of the Pacific Financial Technical Assistance Center (PFTAC) that was undertaken between April 26 and May 14, 2004

The small states of the Asia and Pacific region face unique challenges in raising their growth potential and living standards. These countries are particularly vulnerable because of their small populations, geographical isolation and dispersion, narrow export and production bases, lack of...

The resilience displayed by the New Zealand economy throughout the turbulence is a clear testimony of the benefits of the economic reforms. Executive Directors appreciated these developments, and cautioned against reforms that could reduce labor and product market flexibility, and suggested that...

This Selected Issues paper discusses the issues related to reforms and growth in New Zealand. The paper analyzes the record on growth and productivity outcomes in a comparative perspective. The study provides a brief history of the industrial relations in New Zealand leading up the passage of...

This Selected Issues paper focuses on the issues of fiscal policy, rebalancing, and growth in New Zealand. The paper discusses that a key policy challenge for New Zealand is to rebalance the economy and reduce external vulnerabilities. It provides model-based estimates of the potential...