The paper evaluates whether a monetary aggregate can serve as a useful predictor of inflation, using recent developments in the principle of cointegrated variables. M2 but not M1 is cointegrated with relevant price, transactions, and rate of return variables. However, deviations of M2 from its...

This paper considers the demand for various monetary aggregates with a view to assessing their potential roles as intermediate variables for monetary policy. Illustrative estimates using a generalized autoregressive distributed lag model are presented. For M1, the results support an “error...

The economic and financial crisis is affecting the fiscal accounts of virtually every country. Public sector support for the financial system, fiscal stimulus and the automatic stabilizers, as well as the revenue decline from the downturn in commodity and asset prices, are leading to sharp...

The German economy has made major strides, helped by wide-ranging reforms. Greater transparency and stronger incentives for prudent action will support crisis prevention and management. The immediate priorities are preserving the integrity of the financial system and maintaining economic...

This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that the global financial crisis and the contraction of world trade have pulled the French economy into a severe recession and put its financial sector under strain. Structural features combined with early policy action have helped soften the...

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country