Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority leads least squares estimates to understate the true growth consequences of monetary policy interventions. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on real output growth for several European...

The sharp increase in fiscal deficits and public debt in most advanced and several developing economies has raised concerns about the sustainability of public finances and highlighted the need for a significant adjustment over the medium term. This paper assesses the usefulness of fiscal rules...

This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic growth in Morocco has been volatile and insufficient to significantly reduce poverty and unemployment. Growth averaged 3 percent over the last decade. It has been volatile because of the dependency of agriculture on rainfalls. In 2004,...

This paper examines foreign exchange intervention practices and their effectiveness using a new qualitative and quantitative database for a panel of 15 economies covering 2004 - 10, with special focus on Latin America. Qualitatively, it examines institutional aspects such as declared motives,...

The erosion of EU trade preferences for bananas and sugar will have immediate negative implications for Belize’s economy. This paper suggests ways to enhance public debt management in Belize. The vulnerability of the banking sector appears relatively modest. However, the current level of...

This Selected Issues paper assesses the impact of Vietnam’s World Trade Organization (WTO) accession. It describes the main terms of Vietnam’s accession as regards trade in goods and services, and uses a partial equilibrium simulation model to estimate the likely impact of WTO...

This Selected Issues paper for Nicaragua reports that the Central America–Dominican Republic-United States Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) provides a general framework for country-specific bilateral agreements. In addition to the phased liberalization of trade in goods, CAFTA-DR provides...

Japan showed strong economic recovery from the crisis. Executive Directors welcomed the development and stressed the need for a strong monetary framework, well-designed fiscal consolidation, and structural reforms. Directors agreed that the Bank of Japan’s monetary framework is well...

We review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and...

Upon entry into the European Union, countries become members of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), with a derogation from adopting the euro as their currency (that is, each country joining the EU commits to replace its national currency with the euro, but can choose when to request...