This paper provides an analysis of recent developments relating to the major nonfuel primary commodities entering international trade. Particular attention is given to market price movements in 1986 and to the factors underlying these movements. In the case of some agricultural markets, changes...

As part of its work to help low-income countries (LICs) manage volatility, the IMF has recently developed an analytical framework to assess vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment (see IMF, 2011a). This report draws on the results of the first...

Inflation followed a strikingly uniform pattern in all countries of the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia during the period 1996-2009, falling until about 2000 and then rising. International fuel prices do not help explain this pattern. This conclusion is robust even when different...

This paper presents a neoclassical model that explains the observed empirical relationship between government spending and world commodity supplies and the real exchange rate and real commodity prices. It is shown that fiscal expansion and increasing world commodity supplies simultaneously lead...

A two-country theoretical model is presented, showing the effects of monetary, fiscal, and supply-side disturbances on prices of primary commodities and manufactured goods, and on exchange rates. If monetary shocks dominate, then commodity prices should lead general price movements, and the...

Commodity prices may be a leading indicator of inflation, because of the relative importance of flexible auction markets for the determination of these prices. Empirical tests using data for the large industrial countries as a group suggest that changes in commodity prices tend to lead those in...

We compile a historical dataset covering nearly 40 years of booms and busts in the commodity terms of trade of over 150 countries. We discuss the characteristics of these events and their effects on macroeconomic performance and, in particular, compare the most recent commodity-price cycle with...

This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that New Zealand’s GDP growth was particularly strong in 2004, at 4.8 percent, led by a surge in domestic demand. Private consumption grew by 6 percent, reflecting high employment growth, strong commodity prices, and household borrowing against...

This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic growth in New Zealand slowed in early 2003 but rebounded in the latter part of the year. Real GDP growth declined from 41⁄4 percent in 2002 to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 23⁄4 percent in the first half of 2003, amid...