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The discussion in this paper of the causes and consequences of recent oil price increases, and the appropriate policy response, is framed by the volatility and uncertainty that characterize the oil market. Volatile prices arise from supply and demand that are both highly inelastic in the short...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014410102
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009424867
This paper studies the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of countries'' external balance, including the oil and non-oil trade balances, the current account, and changes in net foreign assets (NFA) during 1975-2004. We explicitly take a global...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401265
Inflation-forecast targeting is state of the art for monetary policy. This book explores first principles, including …Part I. The frontiers of monetary policymaking. 1. An overview of inflation-forecast targeting -- Part II. Principles … and practices of inflation-forecast targeting. 2. First principles -- 3. Managing expectations -- 4. Nuts and bolts of a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011874333
This paper reviews adjustment in oil imports and domestic pricing policies affecting petroleum under Fund-supported programs. The adjustment of countries with Fund-supported programs (during 1980–82) following the two oil price shocks is compared with that of the nonprogram countries, to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396481
The Selected Issues paper of Lebanon provides an update of the vulnerability assessment based on the balance sheet approach. It explores the interest rate determination, the strength of the link to international interest rates, and exposure to international interest rate shocks, summarizes the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014405486
Economic and financial developments in the GCC economies are interwoven with oil price movements. GCC economies are highly dependent on oil and gas exports. Oil price upturns lead to higher oil revenues, stronger fiscal and external positions, and higher government spending. This boosts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014408585
This note discusses the implications of the price shocks for the balance of payments of low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The response by bilateral donors and multilateral institutions will, in practice, need to be country-specific. To this end, the note identifies a list of 18...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014410007
Lebanon’s credit growth in 2008–10 has been concentrated in trade and services, household loans, and the construction sector. These sectors accounted for almost 80 percent of all new loans extended since 2008. Real estate lending in particular has been increased substantially. On the demand...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014397027
In the next 30-40 years, past changes in fertility and mortality will lead to a significant increase in the share of the elderly. This study suggests that these demographic trends may lead to a decline in the G-7 private savings rate after 2000, compounding the impact of social expenditure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396157