Since 1978 the Chinese economy has grown on average more than 9 percenta year. Per capita income has nearly quadrupled in the past 15 years andsome analysts predict that within 20 years the Chinese economy will belarger than that of the United States. This pamphlet analyzes the reasonsfor the...

This paper studies the impact of the level and volatility of the commodity terms of trade on economic growth, as well as on the three main growth channels: total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation, and human capital acquisition. We use the standard system GMM approach as well as...

Despite Mexico’s recent remarkable progress in adjusting its fiscal and external accounts and in restructuring its economy, the recovery of growth has remained elusive. This paper reviews some aspects of Mexico’s recent performance and suggests that systemic adjustment uncertainty, and...

In the 1980s, U.S. real investment in high technology equipment has grown rapidly while other components of business fixed investment have been weak. The surge in real high technology investment has been accompanied by a very sharp decline in its relative price, leading to difficult index number...

This paper examines the behavior of business fixed investment in the United States in the 1980s. A background discussion of the long-term behavior of the components of business fixed investment is provided, setting the context for the empirical analysis. A standard neoclassical model of business...

The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and...

The 2005 Article IV Consultation for the United States reports that robust productivity growth and high corporate profits have contributed to a strong rebound in business investment and some acceleration in employment. The financial sector appears well positioned to provide continued support to...

This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that the U.S. economy has experienced the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. In the second half of 2008, financial pressures intensified and came to a head with the failure of Lehman Brothers in September. Executive Directors have...

The slow-paced growth rate of the U.S. economy, notwithstanding the bolstering attempts is disheartening. Implementing financial reforms and highly accommodative monetary policy are hoped to have a desired effect. Deficit reduction, debt ratio stabilizing strategies, removal of fiscal cliff...

This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that problems in the housing and financial markets over the past year have combined to slow the United States’ economy substantially. As the residential investment downturn accelerated and national indices of housing prices started falling, mortgage...