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A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States
International Monetary Fund - 1989
The methodology used in this paper has three distinguishing features: the natural rate of unemployment and potential output are jointly estimated; estimation integrates wage and price data with “real” and structural data; and third, the methodology encompasses many of the methods found in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396053
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Short-Term Wholesale Funding and Systemic Risk : A Global Covar Approach
International Monetary Fund - 2012
In this paper we identify some of the main factors behind systemic risk in a set of international large-scale complex … risk episodes. In contrast, we find no evidence that a larger size increases systemic risk within the class of large global … banks. We also show that the sensitivity of system-wide risk to an individual bank is asymmetric across episodes of positive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396950
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Macrofinance Model of the Czech Economy : Asset Allocation Perspective
International Monetary Fund - 2012
The paper developes a VAR macrofinance model of the Czech economy. It shows that yield misalignments from the yields implied by the macrofinance model partially determine subsequent yield changes over three to nine months. These yield misalignments tend to persist for a number of months. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396906
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The Transmission Mechanism in Armenia : New Evidence from a Regime Switching VAR Analysis
International Monetary Fund - 2010
The introduction of inflation targeting in 2006, together with important economic developments such as dedollarization … the time inflation targeting was introduced and reduced levels of dollarization were observed. Results from introducing a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403230
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Neglected Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Cross-Country Savings Regressions
International Monetary Fund - 1999
This paper examines the extent to which conclusions of cross-country studies of private savings are robust to allowing for the possible heterogeneity of savings behavior across countries and the inclusion of dynamics. It shows that neglecting heterogeneity and dynamics can lead to misleading...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400163
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Output Decline in Transition : The Case of Kazakhstan
International Monetary Fund - 1998
This paper presents a detailed analysis of the output decline in Kazakhstan in the early years of the transition. The decline is documented at the aggregate and sectoral levels, and the quality of the available data is reviewed. A growth accounting framework quantifies the productivity slowdown...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400556
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The Great Contractions in Russia, the Baltics and the Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union : A View From the Supply Side
International Monetary Fund - 2000
The output contractions during the initial transition stages in the Baltics and in Russia and the other CIS countries are examined across several dimensions, and the reliability of the available official statistics evaluated. The depth, length and breadth of the contractions are studied and set...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399817
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Ghana : Background Information on Output and Investment Performance
International Monetary Fund - 1995
, inflation remained relatively high—at about 25–30 percent—and unpredictable, dampening the incentives for the private sector to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014397501
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Estimates of the Output Gap in Armenia with Applications to Monetary and Fiscal Policy
International Monetary Fund - 2010
estimate a New Keynesian Phillips curve for Armenia, suggesting a significant role of the output gap and inflation expectations … in determining current inflation. Finally, the underlying fiscal stance over the period 2000-09 is assessed by estimating …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398416
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Contractionary Devaluation in Developing Countries : An Analytic Overview
International Monetary Fund - 1988
This paper evaluates the growing literature on whether devaluation has contractionary effects on output in developing countries. It explores the nature of the links between the exchange rate and real output within a unified, fairly general analytical framework which incorporates a number of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396352