This paper considers the implications of the prospective aging of the U.S. population for the social security system and concludes that the large and growing cashflow surpluses of the social security trust funds should be saved to help insulate living stands against this change. A number of...

The authorities have actively pursued restoring credibility in the financial system following the collapse of the system's fourth largest bank in 2014. To restore credibility, the authorities - in addition to requesting a Basel Core Principles (BCP) assessment in 2015 and this financial sector...

This Technical Note (TN) examines the current state of NPLs in Bulgaria and makes recommendations for a strategy to substantially reduce NPLs. These strategy recommendations were developed based on an assessment of the relevant regulatory and supervisory framework and bank practices, including...

This technical note (TN) provides a stocktaking of the current state of the implementation of the key recommendations made by the IMF and the World Bank in their 2015 assessment report on the observance of Basel Core Principles (BCPs) for effective banking supervision in Bulgaria. It provides an...

The paper examines labor market developments in the four hard-peg European Union (EU) accession candidates during transition, with a view toward understanding the persistent high unemployment experienced in each country. Despite the significant levels of unemployment in all four countries, labor...

Like most transition economies, Bulgaria, Lithuania, and Mongolia suffered severe banking crises, which had to be resolved before growth could resume. The macroeconomic and institutional failings that led to these crises are described, and parallels are drawn with the causes of banking crises in...

The large capital inflows that generated a domestic demand boom in Bulgaria led to strong employment growth. But a sharp reduction in capital inflows led to a contraction of domestic demand, while the recession in Bulgaria’s trading partners caused a drop in exports. Public policies will also...

Bulgaria’s potential output growth in future could be markedly lower, and it may take considerable time for the excess labor and resources to be absorbed by other sectors, in particular by the export sector. This suggests that the natural level of rate of unemployment will rise and remain...

This paper examines Bulgaria’s 2004 Article IV Consultation and Ex Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement. Foreign direct investment inflows have been strong, reserves are rising, and competitiveness appears broadly adequate. Fiscal policy has been tightened in 2003, as the...

This paper discusses key findings of the Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Bulgaria. Performance in 2006 was broadly satisfactory, although structural reform implementation was weaker than expected. Notably, the government postponed until mid-2007 the launching of the electronic...