The 2008 crisis underscored the interconnectedness of the international business cycle, with U.S. shocks leading to the largest global slowdown since the 1930s. We estimate spillover effects across major advanced country regions in a structural VAR (SVAR) using pre-crisis data. Our new method...

This paper presents an econometric model of U.S. current account transactions. The model is used to analyze the factors behind the deterioration in the U.S. external position during the 1980s and to examine the sensitivity of the U.S. current account balance to changes in factors which are its...

This paper considers the demand for various monetary aggregates with a view to assessing their potential roles as intermediate variables for monetary policy. Illustrative estimates using a generalized autoregressive distributed lag model are presented. For M1, the results support an “error...

This paper demonstrates that instability associated with investment risk is critical in explaining the level of foreign direct investment for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, which generally have higher investment risk than developed countries. The empirical results support...

Capital flows to the nonindustrial countries share three striking characteristics. First, the bulk, of these flows was in the form of debt, not equity; second, the loans were mostly to, or guaranteed by, debtor governments; and third, these debts were largely bank loans, not bonds. This paper...

In the discussion of the Board work program on June 3, 2013, it was urged that the Fund be more present in current discussions of international tax issues. This note reviews key issues and initiatives in this area, and sets out a work plan that is focused on the Fund's mandate and macroeconomic...

This paper explores the nature, significance and policy implications of spillovers in international corporate taxation-the effects of one country's rules and practices on others. It complements current initiatives focused on tax avoidance by multinationals, notably the G20-OECD project on Base...

This paper summarizes the theory and empirical evidence on the determinants of foreign direct investment. These determinants include expected relative rates of return, risk diversification, market size, technological advantage, market failure, oligopolistic rivalry, liquidity, currency strength,...

This paper examines the extent to which conclusions of cross-country studies of private savings are robust to allowing for the possible heterogeneity of savings behavior across countries and the inclusion of dynamics. It shows that neglecting heterogeneity and dynamics can lead to misleading...

Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority leads least squares estimates to understate the true growth consequences of monetary policy interventions. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on real output growth for several European...