This paper examines the extent to which conclusions of cross-country studies of private savings are robust to allowing for the possible heterogeneity of savings behavior across countries and the inclusion of dynamics. It shows that neglecting heterogeneity and dynamics can lead to misleading...

This paper presents three empirical approaches to forecasting inflation in Pakistan. The preferred approach is a leading indicators model in which broad money growth and private sector credit growth help forecast inflation. A univariate approach also yields reasonable forecasts, but seems less...

This paper seeks to advance the discussion of monetary policy strategies in several ways. One involves a comparison of targets for nominal GNP and the price level, with emphasis on specificational robustness and implications for output variability. A second pertains to various “indicator”...

This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical...

The Selected Issues paper on Poland underlies that as the only European Union economy to avoid outright recession during the crisis, Poland is likely to attract renewed risk appetite. Poland could become one of the main recipients of capital inflows. This could lead to excessive exchange-rate...

This paper discusses key findings of the financial sector stability assessment for Romania. The assessment reveals that in recent years, Romania’s financial sector regulatory authorities have made significant progress in adopting international best practices, including through...

In this study, China’s economic developments and policies are discussed. Economic growth has been increased by expanding infrastructure and real estate construction. The policy measures outlined in the twelfth five-year plan and implementation of financial reform are important for...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Republic of Korea is enjoying its longest uninterrupted period of economic expansion since the Asian crisis. Growth reached 5 percent in 2006, buoyed by strong exports, and is only expected to slow marginally to 4¾ percent this year. The...

The cost of energy subsidies is large, and reduces the fiscal space available for public expenditure priorities, including education, health, and infrastructure. Libya’s ample hydrocarbon wealth will allow it to reform subsidies while protecting the poor. A gradual phasing out of...

Economic outcomes in Jamaica have fallen short of the authorities’ objectives in recent years. As the government looks to reinvigorate its growth and debt reduction strategy, it is instructive to examine how exogenous shocks and other unanticipated developments can affect economic...