This Selected Issues paper uses contingent claims analysis (CCA) to assess risks to the Colombian banking sector. The CCA approach is based on the estimation of the default probability by an entity on its obligations, and is widely used by rating agencies to assess creditworthiness in the...

Despite the external origin of the financial crisis, the potential impact on India’s corporate sector could be large, as India has become increasingly integrated with the global economy in the past decade. The Selected Issues paper discusses India’s economic development and...

The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR)'s healthy labor market and supportive fiscal policy helped its domestic economy's resilience, while its gross domestic product (GDP) growth was marginally slow owing to its weak external environment. Its fiscal policy has been effective in...

The Selected Issues paper on Poland underlies that as the only European Union economy to avoid outright recession during the crisis, Poland is likely to attract renewed risk appetite. Poland could become one of the main recipients of capital inflows. This could lead to excessive exchange-rate...

The staff report for the 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights the Russian Federation’s long-term perspective, economic developments, and macroeconomic policies. Russia’s economic growth remains robust. High oil prices and sound fiscal policy underlie Russia’s long spell...

This Selected Issues paper analyzes the underlying factors that explain the behavior of the Kiwi dollar. The findings suggest that the factors influencing the New Zealand dollar have been changing. The paper discusses that as New Zealand has become more integrated in global capital markets over...

The staff report for the Request for a Stand-by Arrangement with officials of Ukraine discusses economic developments and policies. Assuming a global recovery in the second half of 2009, the Ukrainian economy could be back at its estimated potential growth rate by 2011. The large financing gaps...

This Selected Issues paper on Bolivia reports that it has experienced major increases in its gas reserves, production, and exports. Not only have their levels increased significantly, but also there have been extensive regulatory changes, which range from the privatization of the mid-1990s to...

Cambodia became dollarized suddenly in the early 1990s, as a result of massive dollar inflows stemming from a postconflict situation. Considering that the amount of dollars in circulation is unusually high, we attempt to estimate the true degree of dollarization empirically. Our results show...

This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix provides an estimate of the long-term path of Romania’s real exchange rate. The paper describes the recent history of the real exchange rate and its main determinants. A model is developed of a time-varying long-term exchange rate path,...