This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that Malta’s economic recovery is gaining traction, owing in large part to cyclical strength and some structural change. A public investment boom, financed largely by grants from the European Union, reignited growth in 2005. A modest recovery...

This paper analyzes Bolivia’s growth performance with a focus on the regional and sectoral patterns of growth, and examines the sources of growth. It discusses the evolution of the hydrocarbon sector, its importance in the economy, and reforms. It also analyzes the intergovernmental...

This Selected Issues paper analyzes the properties of the fiscal surplus rule, a key pillar of Chile’s macroeconomic framework. The findings suggest that the rule is near the volatility-minimizing efficiency frontier. The paper assesses the vulnerability of the Chilean banking system to...

This Selected Issues paper examines macroeconomic challenges for a highly tourism-based economy such as Cape Verde. The changing structure of Cape Verde’s balance-of-payments financing calls for a closer look at the volatility of remittances and their role as an absorber of economic...

This Selected Issues paper analyzes external shocks and business cycle fluctuations in Mexico. The paper examines the relative importance of U.S. demand shocks—and other foreign disturbances—in explaining Mexican output fluctuations. It identifies the dynamic response of...

This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic growth in Morocco has been volatile and insufficient to significantly reduce poverty and unemployment. Growth averaged 3 percent over the last decade. It has been volatile because of the dependency of agriculture on rainfalls. In 2004,...

This Selected Issues paper characterizes the rapid expansion of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region’s (Hong Kong SAR) economic ties with the Mainland over the last two decades. It examines the possible impact on Hong Kong SAR of policy developments in the Mainland. The paper concludes...

We review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and...

The size and sources of international spillovers of activity remain subject to significant uncertainty. This Selected Issues paper uses a new approach to differentiating these effects using disturbances to a diverse group of small industrial countries as a proxy for global shocks. The results...

This Selected Issues paper estimates both Guatemala’s potential output and output gap using a wide range of econometric techniques. The analysis suggests that Guatemala’s potential output growth is about 3.5 percent for the whole sample period and that the output gap is almost...