This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates,...

This paper examines the extent to which conclusions of cross-country studies of private savings are robust to allowing for the possible heterogeneity of savings behavior across countries and the inclusion of dynamics. It shows that neglecting heterogeneity and dynamics can lead to misleading...

Bulgaria's macroeconomic performance in the face of the prolonged slowdown in the EU has been impressive, but risks have intensified. The response of fiscal policy to these risks has been adequate. Plans to increase reliance on state enterprises to carry out public sector activities are...

This paper presents findings of the Detailed Assessment of Italy’s Compliance with the Committee for Payment and Settlement Systems (CPSS) Core Principles for Systemically Important Payment Systems. At present, the Italian banking system is subject to significant challenges resulting from...

This paper examines Bulgaria’s 2004 Article IV Consultation and Ex Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement. Foreign direct investment inflows have been strong, reserves are rising, and competitiveness appears broadly adequate. Fiscal policy has been tightened in 2003, as the...

The staff report for the Post-Program Monitoring highlights economic developments, fiscal policy, and monetary policy. The primary risk to the near-term outlook for the Philippine economy is that the prevailing state of uncertainty proves to be protracted and sidelines economic reforms. Adverse...

This paper discusses Trinidad and Tobago’s (TTO) Financial System Stability Assessment, including Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes on Banking Supervision, and Payment Systems. TTO’s financial system is relatively large and structurally complex, demonstrating both...

Kuwait’s 2005 Article IV Consultation reports that the economic and financial positions are projected to remain strong mainly on the expectation that world oil prices will decline only gradually. Reflecting sharply higher oil prices and production, economic conditions improved...

The paper discusses the interrelationships between payments system reform and monetary policy implementation in selected countries in Central and Eastern Europe. The reforms in the payments system are viewed as closely interrelated with the development of money and foreign exchange markets and...

This paper discusses key findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment on Cyprus. The assessment reveals that the banking system of Cyprus has managed to avoid the worst effects of the global financial crisis, but stress tests confirmed that credit risk remains high. The assessment...