This study estimated Indonesia's potential growth rate and examined its underlying determinants. Implementing a comprehensive program to address key influencing issues can improve the effectiveness of monetary policy, increase financial stability, and support capital market development. This...

This paper shows that the presence of quotas on imported inputs that are based on installed capacity can lead to capacity underutilization in manufacturing industries of developing countries. A replacement of such quotas, by tariffs leads to full capacity utilization under assumptions of both...

The methodology used in this paper has three distinguishing features: the natural rate of unemployment and potential output are jointly estimated; estimation integrates wage and price data with “real” and structural data; and third, the methodology encompasses many of the methods found in the...

This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates,...

This paper employs several econometric techniques to estimate the Armenian output gap. The findings indicate that the output gap is significantly positive in 2007 and 2008 and decreased dramatically in 2009. The paper uses these results to estimate a New Keynesian Phillips curve for Armenia,...

This paper examines the extent to which conclusions of cross-country studies of private savings are robust to allowing for the possible heterogeneity of savings behavior across countries and the inclusion of dynamics. It shows that neglecting heterogeneity and dynamics can lead to misleading...

This Selected Issues paper reviews the extent to which growth in Ethiopia has translated into higher living standards. A key feature of the economic strategy has been an explicit commitment to poverty reduction and structural transformation. This is underpinned by the vision of a...

This Selected Issues paper analyzes Jamaica’s experience of low growth despite consistently high investment rates. It suggests that the link between public debt and productivity is part of the answer to the puzzle. The paper considers Jamaica’s debt management strategy and its...

This Selected Issues paper aims at discussing the impact of the oil windfall on Chad, with a focus on growth, poverty, competitiveness, and fiscal policy challenges posed by the oil revenue outlook. The paper discusses the reforms needed to remove structural factors that constraints the non-oil...

The loss of trade preferences in textiles in 2005, the reform to the European Union’s sugar protocol for 2006–10, and higher international oil prices have brought about a permanent deterioration in Mauritius’s terms of trade. This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that...