Nominal interest rate pegging leads to instability in an IS-LM model with a vertical long-run Phillips curve and backward-looking inflation expectations. However, it does not lead to instability in several large multicountry econometric models, apparently primarily because these models have...

A small macroeconomic model based on familiar theoretical considerations is developed and estimated using data from 31 developing countries. Efficient estimation techniques are used to control for country heterogeneity under the assumption of rational expectations. The estimates and the test...

This paper seeks to advance the discussion of monetary policy strategies in several ways. One involves a comparison of targets for nominal GNP and the price level, with emphasis on specificational robustness and implications for output variability. A second pertains to various “indicator”...

This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical...

The dynamic responses of a developing economy to a variety of policy and external shocks are studied using an empirical macroeconomic model which embodies rational expectations, perfect capital mobility, and import rationing. These features, which are relatively new in developing-country...

This paper presents three empirical approaches to forecasting inflation in Pakistan. The preferred approach is a leading indicators model in which broad money growth and private sector credit growth help forecast inflation. A univariate approach also yields reasonable forecasts, but seems less...

The Theory publication and the companion on the practice of compiling consumer price indices (CPIs) is jointly published by the member agencies of the Inter-Secretariat Working Group on Price Statistics (IWGPS): the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat), the International Labour...

This paper examines the IMF's concepts of convertibility and gives some impression of their purposes. The central concept of convertibility in the Articles is the convertibility of Article VIII, Sections 2, 3, and 4. Under it, the basic rule is that members must avoid restrictions on the making...

This paper discusses Article IV, Section 8 of the Articles of Agreement which states the requirement of maintenance of the gold value of the IMF's assets. Each member of the IMF is bound to maintain the gold value of the IMF's holdings of the member's currency notwithstanding changes in the par...

This paper analyzes the factors determining the payment on outstanding debt in the presence of partial defaults, and the feasibility of renewed investment. We show that a higher relative size of sectors with lower substitutability between domestic and foreign products will increase the resource...