This paper constructs and analyzes an optimizing model of dual exchange markets which are incompletely separated owing to the presence of fraudulent cross transactions. The model is used to examine the implications of certain shocks, including devaluation. Devaluation first leads to the...

The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and...

This paper seeks to advance the discussion of monetary policy strategies in several ways. One involves a comparison of targets for nominal GNP and the price level, with emphasis on specificational robustness and implications for output variability. A second pertains to various “indicator”...

This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical...

The exchange rate for the Lebanese pound experienced a protracted period of depreciation from end-1982 to November 1987, followed by a marked appreciation over the following six months. This paper investigates the competing hypotheses that the exchange rate over these two periods was driven by a...

This collection of papers, edited by Victor Argy and Paul De Grauwe, examines issues surrounding the choice of exchange rate regime in smaller industrial countries. It contains a comprehensive summary by Jacques J. Polak

This paper reviews developments and issues in the exchange arrangements and currency convertibility of IMF members. Against the backdrop of continuing financial globalization and a series of emerging market crises since 1997, there have been important changes in the evolution of exchange rate...

This paper outlines legal developments related to floating currencies, gold, and special drawing rights (SDRs) in the IMF. The Articles of the Fund require each member to establish a par value for its currency in terms of gold as a common denominator. Alternatively, the par value may be...

This paper examines legal developments in area of floating currencies, special drawing rights, and gold in the IMF. It highlights that the breakdown of the par value system of the original Articles of the IMF and the failure of the IMF's efforts to substitute a comparable system based on central...

In this paper we develop and test a model of a utility maximizing representative agent operating in the Belgium-Luxembourg two-tier foreign exchange market. Our tests examine and fail to reject a risk neutral representative agent utility function. When we combine a risk neutral utility function...