To test the role of bank lending in transmitting currency crisis we examine a panel of BIS data on bank flows to 30 emerging markets disaggregated by 11 banking centers. We find that bank exposures to a crisis country help predict bank flows in third countries after the Mexican and Asian crisis,...

South Africa’s macroeconomic policies face a complicated task of balancing between supporting domestic demand and maintaining stability. The Selected Issues paper for South Africa discusses economic development and policies. Although the opening output gap and declining employment do call...

This Selected Issues paper discusses the policy response by a sample of central banks to the ongoing oil and food price shocks in South Africa, drawing some lessons, which can help put in context developments in the country. The paper discusses first- and second-round effects of “supply...

Uruguay’s inflation and inflation expectations exceed the inflation target, and the gap has been widening in recent years. To help bring it to the mid-point of the target, Banco Central del Uruguay (BCU) needs to maintain a tightening bias in addition to strengthening its communication....

The recent global financial crisis has exposed the limitations of a conventional inflation targeting framework in insulating an economy from all shocks, and demonstrated that its rigid application may aggravate the effect of shocks on output and inflation. Possible refinements to the inflation...

This Selected Issues paper discusses Romania’s modeling monetary policy. A simple Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) for Romania has been designed to help in the preparation of the IMF staff’s forecasts and policy assessments. A major advantage of this approach is that...

Iceland’s 2005 Article IV Consultation reports that new projects have rekindled rapid growth and the economy is exhibiting signs of overheating, with imbalances evident in inflation, the current account, and external debt. GDP grew at an average rate of 3.8 percent between 1995 and 2004,...

This Selected Issues paper for Iceland reports that it faces a considerably less favorable inflation-output variability trade-off than do Canada or the United States. A number of measures should be considered that could help minimize the cost of inflation breaching the tolerance band and help to...

This paper develops a new macrofinance model for small open economies, allowing the investigation of Mauritius's experience with 'inflation targeting lite' as described in Stone (2003). It finds that this monetary policy regime has been associated with a general reduction in inflation,...