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and world commodity supplies and the real exchange rate and real commodity prices. It is shown that fiscal expansion and … increasing world commodity supplies simultaneously lead to an appreciation of the real exchange rate and a decline in relative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396210
to import and buoying world trade …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014397829
This paper provides an analysis of the market developments in 1988 with respect to primary commodities and the outlook for these commodities in the near and medium term. Attention is focused on the major nonfuel primary commodities traded in international markets. Movements in the overall price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396514
Commodity prices may be a leading indicator of inflation, because of the relative importance of flexible auction markets for the determination of these prices. Empirical tests using data for the large industrial countries as a group suggest that changes in commodity prices tend to lead those in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396014
The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395951
There are few areas of economic policy-making in which the returns to good decisions are so high-and the punishment of bad decisions so cruel-as in the management of natural resource wealth. Rich endowments of oil, gas and minerals have set some countries on courses of sustained and robust...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014397213
We compile a historical dataset covering nearly 40 years of booms and busts in the commodity terms of trade of over 150 countries. We discuss the characteristics of these events and their effects on macroeconomic performance and, in particular, compare the most recent commodity-price cycle with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402376
This paper studies the impact of the level and volatility of the commodity terms of trade on economic growth, as well as on the three main growth channels: total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation, and human capital acquisition. We use the standard system GMM approach as well as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396933
This paper examines the World Economic Outlook forecasting record for the principal performance indicators for the … developments in policy variables and oil prices. In judging the forecast performance of the World Economic Outlook, a number of … points must be kept in mind. Most important, it has to be recognized that the period since the inception of the World …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400509
This paper discusses commodity prices might serve as a useful leading indicator of inflation, based on the relative importance of flexible auction markets for the determination of these prices. They thus may have a tendency to respond relatively quickly, especially in response to monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401015