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Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter

International Monetary Fund - 2010

This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403161

A Noteon Saving-Investment Correlations in the EMS

International Monetary Fund - 1990

This paper extends recent work by Feldstein and Horioka (1980) and Bayoumi (1990), and examines saving-investment correlations for industrial countries in the post-war period. The focus of the enquiry is on differences observed between EMS and non-EMS countries. It is seen that the EMS countries...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396141

Saving-Investment Correlations : Immobile Capital. Government Policy or Endogenous Behavior?

International Monetary Fund - 1989

This paper analyzes reasons for the high post-war correlations of saving and investment, both across countries and over time. It is concluded that the main reason for the observed high correlations over the recent period is probably government policy

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396226

Moreon the Effectiveness of Public Spendingon Health Care and Education : A Covariance Structure Model

International Monetary Fund - 2002

Using data for a sample of developing and transition countries, this paper estimates the relationship between government spending on health care and education, and social indicators. Unlike previous studies, where social indicators are used as proxies for the unobservable health and education...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399239

Fat Tails and their (Un)Happy Endings : Correlation Bias and its Implications for Systemic Risk and Prudential Regulation

International Monetary Fund - 2011

The correlation bias refers to the fact that claim subordination in the capital structure of the firm influences claim … holders’ preferred degree of asset correlation in portfolios held by the firm. Using the copula capital structure model, it is … shown that the correlation bias shifts shareholder preferences towards highly correlated assets, making financial …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401318

Sweden; Financial Sector Assessment Program Update: Technical Note on Contingent Claims Analysis Approach to Measure Risk and Stress Test the Swedish Banking Sector

International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2011

This paper describes the application of contingent claims analysis (CCA) and systemic CCA to the top four commercial banks in Sweden. The balance sheet stress tests for four major banks were complemented with tests based on the CCA framework, a risk-adjusted balance sheet relating bank asset...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011245016

On the Estimation of Term Structure Models and An Application to the United States

International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2010

This paper discusses the estimation of models of the term structure of interest rates. After reviewing the term structure models, specifically the Nelson-Siegel Model and Affine Term- Structure Model, this paper estimates the terms structure of Treasury bond yields for the United States with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727797

Investment; Specific Technology Shocks and International Business Cycles: An Empirical Assessment

International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2010

In this paper, we first introduce investment-specific technology (IST) shocks to an otherwise standard international real business cycle model and show that a thoughtful calibration of them along the lines of Raffo (2009) successfully addresses the "quantity", "international comovement",...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008671290

Three Attempts At Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan

International Monetary Fund - 2005

This paper presents three empirical approaches to forecasting inflation in Pakistan. The preferred approach is a leading indicators model in which broad money growth and private sector credit growth help forecast inflation. A univariate approach also yields reasonable forecasts, but seems less...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400746

Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market

International Monetary Fund - 1990

This paper seeks to advance the discussion of monetary policy strategies in several ways. One involves a comparison of targets for nominal GNP and the price level, with emphasis on specificational robustness and implications for output variability. A second pertains to various “indicator”...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396173