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Deconstructing the International Business Cycle : Why Does a U.S. Sneeze Give the Rest of the World a Cold?
International Monetary Fund - 2010
The 2008 crisis underscored the interconnectedness of the international business cycle, with U.S. shocks leading to the largest global slowdown since the 1930s. We estimate spillover effects across major advanced country regions in a structural VAR (SVAR) using pre-crisis data. Our new method...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402644
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Investment : Specific Technology Shocks and International Business Cycles: An Empirical Assessment
International Monetary Fund - 2010
In this paper, we first introduce investment-specific technology (IST) shocks to an otherwise standard international real business cycle model and show that a thoughtful calibration of them along the lines of Raffo (2009) successfully addresses the ""quantity"", ""international comovement"",...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014397271
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Following Germany'S Lead : Using International Monetary Linkages to Identify the Effect of Monetary Policyon the Economy
International Monetary Fund - 2005
Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority leads least squares estimates to understate the true growth consequences of monetary policy interventions. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on real output growth for several European...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400699
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Interpreting Real Exchange Rate Movements in Transition Countries
International Monetary Fund - 2001
that these appreciations reflect underlying productivity gains in the tradable sector. Using panel data over the period … 1993-98, the results show clear evidence of productivity-driven exchange rate movements in the central and eastern European … expect to experience further productivity-driven real exchange rate appreciations. Evidence from a large cross-section of non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403602
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The Great Contractions in Russia, the Baltics and the Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union : A View From the Supply Side
International Monetary Fund - 2000
collapsing investment and shrinking employment. Sharp declines in productivity, reflecting in part transition-related factors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399817
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Neglected Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Cross-Country Savings Regressions
International Monetary Fund - 1999
This paper examines the extent to which conclusions of cross-country studies of private savings are robust to allowing for the possible heterogeneity of savings behavior across countries and the inclusion of dynamics. It shows that neglecting heterogeneity and dynamics can lead to misleading...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400163
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Trends and Cycles in the U.S. Economy
International Monetary Fund - 1990
The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395945
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Mexico; Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2007
This Selected Issues paper analyzes external shocks and business cycle fluctuations in Mexico. The paper examines the relative importance of U.S. demand shocks—and other foreign disturbances—in explaining Mexican output fluctuations. It identifies the dynamic response of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011245436
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On the Distributive Effects of Terms of Trade Shocks : The Role of Non-Tradable Goods
International Monetary Fund - 2010
We introduce non-tradable goods to the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (HOS) model to study the distributive effects of terms of trade shocks. We show that the employment of resources in activities producing exclusively for the local market induces a crucial association between domestic spending and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402915
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Investment; Specific Technology Shocks and International Business Cycles: An Empirical Assessment
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2010
In this paper, we first introduce investment-specific technology (IST) shocks to an otherwise standard international real business cycle model and show that a thoughtful calibration of them along the lines of Raffo (2009) successfully addresses the "quantity", "international comovement",...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008671290