The paper finds that simple econometric specifications yield surprising rich and complex dynamics -- relative prices respond to the nominal exchange rate and pass-through effects, import and export volumes respond to relative price changes, and the trade balance responds to changes in import and...

This paper uses an intertemporal optimizing model of a small open economy to analyze how terms of trade changes affect real exchange rates and the trade balance. We consider temporary current, anticipated future, and permanent changes in the terms of trade. The results suggest that the...

The current slowdown in the Norwegian economy has followed an exceptionally prolonged phase of expansion. The current slowdown in economic growth is expected to continue. Over the longer term, the public finances face challenges as oil revenues begin to run out and pension liabilities escalate....