Showing 1 - 10 of 342
that theory and structure help in predicting commodity prices, although not the exchange rate, and that predictive ability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396210
This paper provides an analysis of recent developments relating to the major nonfuel primary commodities entering international trade. Particular attention is given to market price movements in 1986 and to the factors underlying these movements. In the case of some agricultural markets, changes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014397828
Commodity prices may be a leading indicator of inflation, because of the relative importance of flexible auction markets for the determination of these prices. Empirical tests using data for the large industrial countries as a group suggest that changes in commodity prices tend to lead those in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396014
This paper examines the impact of trade costs on real exchange rate volatility. We incorporate a multi … exchange rate volatility depends on relative technological differences and trade costs. These differences highlight a new … volatility. We then test the importance of this channel using a large panel of cross-country data over 1970-97, and find strong …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399797
This paper studies the impact of the level and volatility of the commodity terms of trade on economic growth, as well … (CPMG) methodology of Pesaran et al. (1999) for estimation. The latter takes account of cross-country heterogeneity and … of trade growth enhances real output per capita, volatility exerts a negative impact on economic growth operating mainly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396933
We study the impact of a minimum wage on business cycle volatility, depending upon its coverage and adjustment … affecting 20 percent of employees would amplify output volatility by 0.2 percent to 9.2 percent, and employment volatility by ?1 ….2 percent to 7.8 percent. A fixed wage or indexation to consumption price inflation increases volatility most. Indexation to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401464
This paper examines the impact of trade costs on real exchange rate volatility. The channel is examined by constructing … higher trade costs result in a larger nontradable sector. This, in turn, leads to higher real exchange rate volatility. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404193
Anecdotal evidence relates corruption with high levels of military spending. This paper tests empirically whether such a relationship exists. The empirical analysis is based on data from four different sources for up to 120 countries in the period 1985–98. The association between military...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399916
This paper examines the extent to which conclusions of cross-country studies of private savings are robust to allowing for the possible heterogeneity of savings behavior across countries and the inclusion of dynamics. It shows that neglecting heterogeneity and dynamics can lead to misleading...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400163
Market reaction to a change in official interest rates will depend on the extent to which the change is anticipated, and on how it is interpreted as a signal of future policy. In this paper, a technique is developed to separate the anticipated and unanticipated components of such changes and is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400820