This study estimated Indonesia's potential growth rate and examined its underlying determinants. Implementing a comprehensive program to address key influencing issues can improve the effectiveness of monetary policy, increase financial stability, and support capital market development. This...

The Chinese authorities welcomed the spillover analysis, noting that their policies have important global spillover effects. The note also discusses China’s evolving role in global trade, impact of rebalancing on the supply chain, estimating China’s spillovers, elasticities approach, factor...

The euro area (EA) plays a major role in the global economy. Market perceptions of events in the EA program countries illustrate the possibility of large spillovers from the area in times of stress. The prospect of large spillovers underscores the urgent need for actions to contain, and...

The size of the U.S. economy and, in particular, the global dominance of its financial markets creates uniquely large policy spillovers. Concerns that the end of QE2 could lead to a rapid reversal of emerging market capital flows appear overblown. A credible plan for a gradual U.S. fiscal...

To test the role of bank lending in transmitting currency crisis we examine a panel of BIS data on bank flows to 30 emerging markets disaggregated by 11 banking centers. We find that bank exposures to a crisis country help predict bank flows in third countries after the Mexican and Asian crisis,...

This paper presents evidence that spillovers through bank lending, as opposed to trade linkages and country characteristics, can help explain contagion. We construct a measure of competition for bank funds and find evidence in favor of a common lender effect in the Mexican, Thai, and Russian...

The 2008 crisis underscored the interconnectedness of the international business cycle, with U.S. shocks leading to the largest global slowdown since the 1930s. We estimate spillover effects across major advanced country regions in a structural VAR (SVAR) using pre-crisis data. Our new method...

This paper investigates the impact of a global slowdown on individual African countries using a series of dynamic panel regressions for countries in the region, relating real growth in domestic output to world growth in trade weighted by partner countries and several control variables: oil...

This paper explores the nature, significance and policy implications of spillovers in international corporate taxation-the effects of one country's rules and practices on others. It complements current initiatives focused on tax avoidance by multinationals, notably the G20-OECD project on Base...