Fiscal rules are being increasingly used by both emerging and developed economies. This paper analyzes two alternative fiscal policy rules in terms of their impact on debt sustainability: a rule that fixes the ratio of primary surplus to GDP (""fixed surplus rule"") and one that sets the primary...

This paper presents three empirical approaches to forecasting inflation in Pakistan. The preferred approach is a leading indicators model in which broad money growth and private sector credit growth help forecast inflation. A univariate approach also yields reasonable forecasts, but seems less...

This paper seeks to advance the discussion of monetary policy strategies in several ways. One involves a comparison of targets for nominal GNP and the price level, with emphasis on specificational robustness and implications for output variability. A second pertains to various “indicator”...

This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical...

This Selected Issues Paper on Iran reviews that monetary factors are the main determinants of inflation in the country. Government spending out of oil revenues leads to large liquidity injections that the central bank accommodates owing to its efforts to prevent a significant nominal...

This paper analyzes the importance of developing market-enhancing institutions for restoring economic growth in transition economies during 1991–98. The paper’s main finding is that the development of an institutional framework has indeed a significant positive impact on growth, but that...

This paper discusses the estimation of models of the term structure of interest rates. After reviewing the term structure models, specifically the Nelson-Siegel Model and Affine Term- Structure Model, this paper estimates the terms structure of Treasury bond yields for the United States with...

The correlation bias refers to the fact that claim subordination in the capital structure of the firm influences claim holders’ preferred degree of asset correlation in portfolios held by the firm. Using the copula capital structure model, it is shown that the correlation bias shifts...

The quota database has been updated by one year through 2014. Overall, the results of the update continue the broad trends observed in previous updates, but the shifts between the main country groups are generally smaller. Using the current quota formula, the calculated quota share of Emerging...

Effects of different policy rules are simulated: uncoordinated targeting of the money supply or nominal income, use of monetary policy to achieve coordinated targets for nominal or real exchange rates, and the use of monetary and fiscal policies to hit targets for internal and external balance....