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This is the fourth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402506
This paper employs several econometric techniques to estimate the Armenian output gap. The findings indicate that the output gap is significantly positive in 2007 and 2008 and decreased dramatically in 2009. The paper uses these results to estimate a New Keynesian Phillips curve for Armenia,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398416
The paper describes a global model consisting of several industrial and developing country blocks built to analyze alternative economic policies in a medium-term context. The model, which has been used to construct medium-term scenarios for the World Economic Outlook, consists of aggregate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395761
This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403161
Since 1978 the Chinese economy has grown on average more than 9 percenta year. Per capita income has nearly quadrupled in the past 15 years andsome analysts predict that within 20 years the Chinese economy will belarger than that of the United States. This pamphlet analyzes the reasonsfor the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403126
that these appreciations reflect underlying productivity gains in the tradable sector. Using panel data over the period … 1993-98, the results show clear evidence of productivity-driven exchange rate movements in the central and eastern European … expect to experience further productivity-driven real exchange rate appreciations. Evidence from a large cross-section of non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403602
This paper undertakes a cross-country analysis of productivity growth at both the aggregate and sectoral level. It … finds that Asia''s remarkable output growth over the past 40 years reflected both high investment, and rapid productivity … encouraged resource shifts from low- to high-productivity sectors. Looking ahead, sustaining rapid growth requires meeting a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401163
collapsing investment and shrinking employment. Sharp declines in productivity, reflecting in part transition-related factors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399817
This paper highlights key issues pertinent for the understanding of international effects of domestic tax policies and of international tax harmonization. The analytical framework adopts the saving-investment balance approach to the analysis of international economic interdependence focusing on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396181
as on the three main growth channels: total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation, and human capital …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396933