This paper presents three empirical approaches to forecasting inflation in Pakistan. The preferred approach is a leading indicators model in which broad money growth and private sector credit growth help forecast inflation. A univariate approach also yields reasonable forecasts, but seems less...

This paper seeks to advance the discussion of monetary policy strategies in several ways. One involves a comparison of targets for nominal GNP and the price level, with emphasis on specificational robustness and implications for output variability. A second pertains to various “indicator”...

This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical...

This staff report on People’s Republic of China 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights macroeconomic developments and outlook. China has maintained robust growth since the global crisis, but the heavy reliance on credit and investment to sustain activity is raising vulnerabilities. The...

The staff reports for the 2013 Article IV Consultation on the Chile discuss the strong and inclusive growth over the medium term. Technocratic, rules-based, and transparent policy management; monetary policy under a floating exchange rate undertaken by a credible central bank; and prudent fiscal...

KEY ISSUES Abenomics is gaining traction, but progress across the three arrows has been uneven and medium-term risks remain substantial. Inflation has risen, a consumption tax increase has been implemented, and there are signs of a transition to private-led growth. However, structural reforms...

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Norwegian economy has been performing well, with mainland GDP growing steadily. However, the continuing buildup of assets in the sovereign wealth fund and the increasing share of the mainland economy that is supplying goods and services to the...

Sharp increase in house prices combined with the extraordinary Chinese lending growth during 2009 has led to concerns of an emerging real estate bubble. We find that, for China as a whole, the current levels of house prices do not seem significantly higher than would be justified by underlying...