Observers have often characterized asset markets as being subject to periods of tranquility and periods of turbulence. Until recently, however, researchers were unable to produce closed-form asset pricing formulas in a model environment of time-varying risk. Some work by Abel provided us with...

This paper analyzes the dynamics of the real exchange rate and the price of equity for a small open economy using an optimizing model in which the process of capital accumulation entails adjustment costs. The analysis demonstrates that along an adjustment path toward long-run equilibrium,...

In early 2008, the Fund launched ambitious reforms to enhance its ability to deliver the economic and financial analysis, member support, and multilateral collaboration essential to promote global stability. The reform agenda called for: (i) stronger surveillance through sharpened multilateral...

This study characterizes volatility dynamics in external emerging bond markets and examines how prices and volatility respond to news about macroeconomic fundamentals. As in mature bond markets, macroeconomic surprises in external emerging bond markets are found to a¤ect both conditional...

Inflation-forecast targeting is state of the art for monetary policy. This book explores first principles, including managing short-term policy trade-offs. The book also outlines efficient operational procedures and reviews the experiences of Canada, the Czech Republic, and India. The analysis...

A central bank must decide on the frequency with which it will conduct open market operations and the variability in short-term money market that it will allow. It is shown how the optimal operating procedure balances the value of attaining an immediate target and broadcasting the central...