The sensitivity of secondary sovereign loan market returns to three classes of economic news is estimated in the arbitrage pricing theory framework. Returns are characterized by a limited response to unexpected changes in procyclical U.S. aggregates. Shocks to country-specific balance of payment...

This paper presents three empirical approaches to forecasting inflation in Pakistan. The preferred approach is a leading indicators model in which broad money growth and private sector credit growth help forecast inflation. A univariate approach also yields reasonable forecasts, but seems less...

This paper seeks to advance the discussion of monetary policy strategies in several ways. One involves a comparison of targets for nominal GNP and the price level, with emphasis on specificational robustness and implications for output variability. A second pertains to various “indicator”...

This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical...

The report provides the IMF's projections and estimates of Cape Verde on selected economic and financial indicators, 2001–05; social and demographic indicators, 2001–04; consumer prices; gross domestic product sources and uses of resources; gross domestic product by industry at current...

This Selected Issues paper on Australia highlights the IMF’s new Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF), which is used to examine the macroeconomic implications of alternative fiscal responses to higher revenue. Lower labor and capital income taxes, along with higher public...

This Selected Issues paper for the United States discusses the microeconomics of the country—household wealth and savings. Households’ consumption-saving decisions have an important bearing on the U.S. economic outlook. This paper demonstrates how households with consistently lower...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that Japan’s external position remains strong. Boosted by investment income, the current account surplus widened in 2006 to nearly 4 percent of Japan’s GDP, despite a shrinking trade balance. Financial outflows also picked up, reflecting...

In this study, economic recovery and growth of Macedonia are discussed. In the financial sector, nonperforming loans (NPLs) rose, and bank profitability declined as a result of the crisis. Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. Directors were encouraged by the overall...

The paper describes the impressive economic progress made by Iceland in implementing program policies, stabilizing the exchange rate, and bringing inflation down, under a program supported by a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). The authorities noted that key challenges are to reduce the high level of...