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The Impact of Introducing a Minimum Wageon Business Cycle Volatility : A Structural Analysis for Hong Kong SAR
International Monetary Fund - 2008
We study the impact of a minimum wage on business cycle volatility, depending upon its coverage and adjustment … affecting 20 percent of employees would amplify output volatility by 0.2 percent to 9.2 percent, and employment volatility by ?1 ….2 percent to 7.8 percent. A fixed wage or indexation to consumption price inflation increases volatility most. Indexation to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401464
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Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows : Some New Evidence
International Monetary Fund - 2004
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014409758
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Deconstructing the International Business Cycle : Why Does a U.S. Sneeze Give the Rest of the World a Cold?
International Monetary Fund - 2010
The 2008 crisis underscored the interconnectedness of the international business cycle, with U.S. shocks leading to the largest global slowdown since the 1930s. We estimate spillover effects across major advanced country regions in a structural VAR (SVAR) using pre-crisis data. Our new method...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402644
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Business Cycles in Emerging Markets; The Role of Durable Goods and Financial Frictions
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2011
This paper examines how durable goods and financial frictions shape the business cycle of a small open economy subject to shocks to trend and transitory shocks. In the data, nondurable consumption is not as volatile as income for both developed and emerging market economies. The simulation of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009151224
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Three Attempts At Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan
International Monetary Fund - 2005
This paper presents three empirical approaches to forecasting inflation in Pakistan. The preferred approach is a leading indicators model in which broad money growth and private sector credit growth help forecast inflation. A univariate approach also yields reasonable forecasts, but seems less...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400746
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Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market
International Monetary Fund - 1990
This paper seeks to advance the discussion of monetary policy strategies in several ways. One involves a comparison of targets for nominal GNP and the price level, with emphasis on specificational robustness and implications for output variability. A second pertains to various “indicator”...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396173
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Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market
International Monetary Fund - 1990
This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396182
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Guarding Against Fiscal Risks in Hong Kong SAR
International Monetary Fund - 2007
volatility creates risks to service provision, possibly entailing sudden tax changes, or even requiring new borrowing. After … fiscal savings (reserves), and the impact alternate policy choices could have on revenue volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400988
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Interest Rate Volatility and Risk in Indian Banking
International Monetary Fund - 2004
The easing of controls on interest rates has led to higher interest rate volatility in India. Hence, there is a need to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404135
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Macroeconomic Fundamentals, Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in Emerging Markets
International Monetary Fund - 2009
This study characterizes volatility dynamics in external emerging bond markets and examines how prices and volatility … markets are found to a¤ect both conditional returns and volatility, with the e¤ects on volatility being more pronounced and … volatility dynamics in external emerging bond markets …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404285