This paper seeks to advance the discussion of monetary policy strategies in several ways. One involves a comparison of targets for nominal GNP and the price level, with emphasis on specificational robustness and implications for output variability. A second pertains to various “indicator”...

This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical...

The optimal provision of loan guarantees or deposit insurance is examined in the context of an overlapping generations model. It is demonstrated that even in the face of a market imperfection that precludes diversification of the private sector’s loan portfolio to eliminate risk, full...

This paper presents three empirical approaches to forecasting inflation in Pakistan. The preferred approach is a leading indicators model in which broad money growth and private sector credit growth help forecast inflation. A univariate approach also yields reasonable forecasts, but seems less...

A firm theoretical basis for the empirical relationship between dependency rates and savings behavior in developing countries is still lacking. Two demographic extensions of the representative household’s stochastic dynamic optimization problem are presented here. It is shown that the...

This paper examines whether financial deregulation in the 1980s has reduced the importance of liquidity constraints in consumption patterns. Data for six industrialized countries are used to estimate a simple model incorporating liquidity constraints and forward looking behavior. It is concluded...

This Selected Issues paper is a wide-ranging survey of the conditions for, and obstacles to, the growth in Mexico. It frames the issue of Mexico’s growth record, and presents the paper’s prior assumptions and approach. It highlights the main observations and conclusions emerging...

This Selected Issues Paper presents an analysis of Belarus-specific conditions and cross-country research, and proposes a roadmap for real-sector reforms. It highlights distortions resulting from the government’s interference in the economy, and presents an overview of economic benefits...