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The Impact of Introducing a Minimum Wageon Business Cycle Volatility : A Structural Analysis for Hong Kong SAR
International Monetary Fund - 2008
We study the impact of a minimum wage on business cycle volatility, depending upon its coverage and adjustment … affecting 20 percent of employees would amplify output volatility by 0.2 percent to 9.2 percent, and employment volatility by ?1 ….2 percent to 7.8 percent. A fixed wage or indexation to consumption price inflation increases volatility most. Indexation to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401464
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Deconstructing the International Business Cycle : Why Does a U.S. Sneeze Give the Rest of the World a Cold?
International Monetary Fund - 2010
The 2008 crisis underscored the interconnectedness of the international business cycle, with U.S. shocks leading to the largest global slowdown since the 1930s. We estimate spillover effects across major advanced country regions in a structural VAR (SVAR) using pre-crisis data. Our new method...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402644
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Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model
International Monetary Fund - 2009
This is the fourth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402506
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Estimates of the Output Gap in Armenia with Applications to Monetary and Fiscal Policy
International Monetary Fund - 2010
This paper employs several econometric techniques to estimate the Armenian output gap. The findings indicate that the output gap is significantly positive in 2007 and 2008 and decreased dramatically in 2009. The paper uses these results to estimate a New Keynesian Phillips curve for Armenia,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398416
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Increasing Resilience to Large and Volatile Capital Flows : The Role of Macroprudential Policies
International Monetary Fund - 2017
Capital flows can deliver substantial benefits for countries, but also have the potential to contribute to a buildup of systemic financial risk. Benefits, such as enhanced investment and consumption smoothing, tend to be greater for countries whose financial and institutional development enables...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014408642
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Increasing Resilience to Large and Volatile Capital Flows : The Role of Macroprudential Policies
International Monetary Fund - 2017
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014408670
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Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows : Some New Evidence
International Monetary Fund - 2004
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014409758
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Managing Volatility in Low-Income Countries : The Role and Potential for Contingent Financial Instruments
International Monetary Fund - 2011
The paper examines the case for contingent financial instruments for low-income countries (LICs), from both the market and official sector. These include commodity price hedging instruments, contingent debt instruments (commodity-linked bonds, deferred repayment loans), and natural disaster...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014410218
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Managing Volatility : A Vulnerability Exercise for Low-Income Countries
International Monetary Fund - 2011
This paper, introduces the analytical framework for a Vulnerability Exercise for Low-Income Countries (VE-LIC). The envisaged exercise will strive to identify vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment in a consistent manner across countries and across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014410584
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Guarding Against Fiscal Risks in Hong Kong SAR
International Monetary Fund - 2007
volatility creates risks to service provision, possibly entailing sudden tax changes, or even requiring new borrowing. After … fiscal savings (reserves), and the impact alternate policy choices could have on revenue volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400988